Analysis of measures for stopping post-pandemic rebound or future epidemic infections in Colombia. A system dynamics approach, based in COVID 19

Autores/as

  • Danny Ibarra Vega IRCACS
  • Oscar Rubiano Ovalle Universidad del Valle

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15665/rp.v19i2.2588

Palabras clave:

COVID 19, Measures, Pandemic dynamics, Simulation, System Dynamics (SD).

Resumen

In Colombian different measures have been formulated to stop the outbreak of COVID 19, all focused on           reducing social contact, depending on the phase of the dynamics of the epidemic. In this article, thresholds for implementing measures have been defined based on the percentage of the total infected population. Similarly, a mathematical model has been created with systems dynamics. The process starts from the SIR standard model, with the inclusion of hospitalized and dead variables as stock variables. As a result, a model with five stock variables is presented. Using piecewise functions was possible to model for containment and mitigation measures focused on preventing the massive contagion. It was possible to see the reduction in contacts, and it was possible to see the reduction of infected people. The results of the model for the city of Cali, Colombia, which has a population of 2,200,000 inhabitants, are presented. The model presents an easy-to-understand structure to evaluate the measures implemented by the authorities to mitigate the COVID outbreak. The results allow seeing the trends of the outbreak and the effectiveness of the measures in stopping the infection. This work is a tool to understand outbreaks and rebounds in times of post-pandemic and future infections.

Citas

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Publicado

2021-07-17