Design Of A Model To Predict Student Enrollment In University Educational Environments Based On Machine Learning Techniques
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15665/rp.v20i1.2736Keywords:
Aprendizaje automático; Predicción; Entornos universitarios; Prototipo; Deserción universitaria.Abstract
Uno de los principales problemas que enfrenta el sistema de educación superior en distintos países se relaciona con los altos niveles de deserción académica al cursar una carrera de pregrado. El número de alumnos que logra culminar sus estudios superiores no es alto, evidenciando que una gran parte de éstos abandona sus estudios principalmente en los primeros semestres. Las nuevas tecnologías como el aprendizaje automático han permitido la creación de aplicaciones de software que ayudan a la comprensión y solución de muchos problemas actuales. En el campo de la educación, estas tecnologías se han aplicado en los procesos administrativos y académicos durante mucho tiempo.
Este artículo presenta el diseño de un modelo que permite predecir si un estudiante desertará o no. Para la validación del modelo se construyó un prototipo y se realizaron varios experimentos con datos reales de una institución educativa. Los resultados obtenidos son prometedores y sientan las bases para futuras investigaciones en este campo.
References
C. Henríquez, F. Briceño, and D. Salcedo, “Unsupervised Model for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis in Spanish,” IAENG Int. J. Comput. Sci., no. 3, pp. 430–438, 2019.
C. Henríquez and J. Guzmán, “Las ontologías para la detección automática de aspectos en el análisis de sentimientos,” Rev. Prospect., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 90–98, 2016.
M. I. Jordan and T. M. Mitchell, “Machine learning: Trends, perspectives, and prospects,” Science (80-. )., vol. 349, no. 6245, pp. 255–260, 2015.
L. Paura and I. Arhipova, “Cause analysis of students’ dropout rate in higher education study program,” Procedia-Social Behav. Sci., vol. 109, pp. 1282–1286, 2014.
S. B. Kotsiantis, “Use of machine learning techniques for educational proposes: a decision support system for forecasting students’ grades,” Artif. Intell. Rev., vol. 37, no. 4, pp. 331–344, 2012.
Banco Mundial, “Graduarse: solo la mitad lo logra en América Latina,” https://www.bancomundial.org/es/news/feature/2017/05/17/graduating-only-half-of-latin-american-students-manage-to-do-so, 2017. .
Ministerio Educación, “Estrategias para la Permanencia en Educación Superior: Experiencias Significativas,” https://www.mineducacion.gov.co/1759/articles-356276_recurso.pdf, 2015. .
D. Yang, D. Adamson, T. Sinha, and C. P. Rose, “‘Turn on, Tune in, Drop out’: Anticipating Student Dropouts in Massive Open Online Courses Investigating Individual Learner Behavior in Educational Technologies View project Investigating the Impact of Social and Interpersonal Factors on Learning View project ‘Turn on, Tune in, Drop out’: Anticipating student dropouts in Massive Open Online Courses,” 2013.
K. B. Eckert and R. Suénaga, “Análisis de deserción-permanencia de estudiantes universitarios utilizando técnica de clasificación en miner’ia de datos,” Form. Univ., vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 3–12, 2015.
M. Tan and P. Shao, “Prediction of student dropout in e-Learning program through the use of machine learning method.,” Int. J. Emerg. Technol. Learn., vol. 10, no. 1, 2015.
K. Coussement, M. Phan, A. De Caigny, D. F. Benoit, and A. Raes, “Predicting student dropout in subscription-based online learning environments: The beneficial impact of the logit leaf model,” Decis. Support Syst., vol. 135, p. 113325, 2020.
B. Cuji, W. Gavilanes, and R. SANCHEZ, “Modelo predictivo de deserción estudiantil basado en arboles de decisión,” Espacios, vol. 38, no. 55, p. 17, 2017.
M. Barramuño, C. Meza-Narváez, and G. Gálvez-Garc’ia, “Prediction of student attrition risk using machine learning,” J. Appl. Res. High. Educ., 2021.
M. Sol’is, T. Moreira, R. Gonzalez, T. Fernandez, and M. Hernandez, “Perspectives to predict dropout in university students with machine learning,” in 2018 IEEE International Work Conference on Bioinspired Intelligence (IWOBI), 2018, pp. 1–6.
P. E. Ram’irez and E. E. Grandón, “Predicción de la Deserción Académica en una Universidad Pública Chilena a través de la Clasificación basada en Árboles de Decisión con Parámetros Optimizados,” Form. Univ., vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 3–10, 2018.
A. Mujumdar and V. Vaidehi, “Diabetes prediction using machine learning algorithms,” Procedia Comput. Sci., vol. 165, pp. 292–299, 2019.
NumFOCUS sponsored project., “Pandas,” 2021. [Online]. Available: https://pandas.pydata.org/. [Accessed: 02-Sep-2021].
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Carlos Henriquez Miranda, Dixon Salcedo, German Sanchez Torres

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The authors to publish in this journal agree to the following conditions:
- The authors transfer the copyright and give the the journal first publication right of the work registered with Creative Commons Attribution License, which allows third parties to use the published work on the condition of always mentioning the authorship and first publication in this journal.
- The authors may perform other independent and additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the article published in this issue (E.g., Inclusion in an institutional repository or publication in a book), it must be indicated clearly that the work was first published in this journal.
- It allows and encourages the authors to publish their work online (eg institutional or personal pages) before and during the review and publication process. It can lead to productive exchanges and greater and faster dissemination of the published work (see The Effect of Open Access)
Instructions to fill out Certificate of Originality and Copyright Assignment
- Click here and get the forms of Certificate of Originality and Copyright Assignment .
- In each field to fill out, click and complete the corresponding information.
- Once the fields are filled out, at the end of the form copy your scanned signature or digital signature. Please adjust the size of the signature on the form.
- Finally, you can save them as pdf files and send them through the OJS platform as an attachment.
