Analysis of measures for stopping post-pandemic rebound or future epidemic infections in Colombia. A system dynamics approach, based in COVID 19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15665/rp.v19i2.2588Keywords:
COVID 19; Measures; Pandemic dynamics; Simulation; System DynamicsAbstract
As long as there is no vaccine or treatment, countries need to take measures to curb the epidemic growth of COVID 19 or postpandemic rebound, or possible new epidemics based on viruses. Taking in count COVID 19, In the Colombian case, different measures have been formulated to stop the outbreak of COVID 19 in different contexts, and all focused on reducing social contact. The responsible authorities. The competent authorities define the implementation of measures, depending on the phase of the dynamics of the epidemic. In this article, thresholds for implementing measures have been defined with the percentage of the total infected population.
Similarly, a mathematical model has been created with a systems dynamics approach. The evolution of the phases of the epidemic in the studied region has importance to define thresholds. We start from the SIR standard model, with the inclusion of hospitalized and dead variables as stock variables. As a result, a model with five stock variables is presented.
Using piecewise functions was possible to model four containment and mitigation measures focused on preventing the population from massive contagion. It was possible to see the reduction in contacts, and it was possible to see the reduction of infected people. The results of the model for the city of Cali, Colombia, which has a population of 2,200,000 inhabitants, are presented. The model presents an easy-to-understand structure to evaluate the measures implemented by the authorities to mitigate the COVID outbreak. The results allow seeing the trends of the outbreak and the effectiveness of the measures in stopping the infection. This work is a tool to understand outbreaks and outbreaks in times of post-pandemic and future infections.
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